According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Uganda is expected to have stronger growth compared to Kenya, the two largest economies in East Africa.
Despite many economic challenges, growth will be higher than in many sub-Saharan African countries. Many of these countries are still suffering from Covid-19-related impacts, debt repayments, a global economic slowdown, and disruptions to the global supply chain.
Details released by the IMF show that Uganda will grow at 5.7% in 2024, slightly ahead of Kenya’s 5.4% and South Sudan’s 4.6%.
However, Tanzania, which is expected to grow by 6.2%, will record higher growth than Uganda. Rwanda and Burundi are also expected to register higher growth than Uganda, he at 7.5% and 6%.
Dr. Abebe Aemro Selassi, Director of the IMF’s Africa Department, said growth across sub-Saharan Africa will vary by country, with some countries within East Africa in particular, or those that are less oil-intensive, expected to fare better. said.
However, poor performance in some countries, such as South Africa, where growth is projected to slow to just 0.1%, could affect overall sub-Saharan growth.
Growth in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to slow to 3.6% in 2024 before recovering to 4.2% due to a global recovery, lower inflation and less tightening of monetary policy.
This is the second year the IMF has recorded slow growth in sub-Saharan Africa.
Sub-Saharan Africa is experiencing a weakened economic position with many economic fundamentals registering volatile movements.
For example, the region has seen public debt and inflation rise to levels not seen in decades, with half of the countries experiencing double-digit inflation and lower household purchasing power.
The IMF said the share of public debt in sub-Saharan Africa’s gross domestic product has reached 56%. This is due to overlapping crises, slowing growth and widening budget deficits due to depreciating exchange rates.
According to the IMF, rising public debt levels have raised concerns about debt sustainability, with 19 of the region’s 35 low-income countries already facing a debt crisis in 2022 or The risk of facing a debt crisis is high.
This has been exacerbated by rising inflation, even as many countries in the region began registering declines in early 2023.
However, projections show that inflation will remain above pre-Covid-19 levels throughout 2027, and the IMF has warned policymakers to keep inflation in check while supporting a fragile recovery. He pointed out that a delicate balance needs to be maintained between placements.