Shipment levels in Q2 2023 are estimated at 47.26 million units (up 9% quarter-on-quarter), near pre-pandemic levels, despite seasonal market decline of 21.8% quarter-on-quarter expected to recover.
Current forecasts show a notable increase in shipments from the brand in the first half of 2023 compared to initial forecasts at the beginning of the year. The average rate of increase in Q1 and Q2 was 4%. This was largely caused by the sustained surge in panel prices, prompting some Chinese brands to stock up on inventory early to reduce overall costs. Considering the IMF’s forecast of sub-3% economic growth in 2023 and the continued impact of inflation on TV market demand, TrendForce expects annual TV shipments to fall just 1.2% year-on-year, for a total of 100 million We expect it to be 98 million units.
High inflation curbs demand for 8K and OLED TVs, leading to sluggish shipments
For high-end workhorses, the current economic climate is unfavorable for 8K and OLED TV sales. Hampered by high panel costs and exorbitant overall prices, 8K is struggling to gain traction in the market. To compound the problem, rampant inflation eroded consumers’ disposable income, causing shipments to plummet 7.4% last year. Forecasts for this year show negative growth to continue. As it stands, Samsung Electronics has taken the lead in promoting his 8K products, with around 70% of the market share, while other brands have shown lukewarm interest in the promotion. As a result, 8K TVs have barely penetrated the market, with a penetration rate of he only 0.2-0.3%. Demand for OLED TVs is facing similar headwinds despite the continued rise in LCD TV panel prices this year. The price difference between 55-inch UHD OLED and LCD panels is expected to shrink from 4.2 times at the beginning of the year to 3 times in the second half of 2023, but this is unlikely to spur the expansion of OLED shipments of each brand. Shipments are expected to drop significantly by 17.2% to reach 5.58 million units.
Hisense’s sales strategy in North America and China succeeds, and shipments surge
Hisense successfully navigated both domestic and international markets in the second half of 2022. Within China, Hisense leveraged its sub-brand Vidda to capture the attention of younger consumers with its innovative music TV, while Hisense’s own brand aimed at the high-end market. This dual-brand approach has paid off, pushing Hisense’s Chinese market share to a staggering 22% in 2022, closing in on Xiaomi. In overseas markets, the company focused on promoting budget-friendly TV models. At just $158 and $268 respectively, the 40-inch and 58-inch models became hot sellers among the top five US sales channels. Hisense has weathered the storm of inflationary pressures with technology that offers cost-effective options. The company’s market share in North America is expected to soar to 11% in 2022 and reach 15% this year. TrendForce estimates paint a rosy picture for Hisense, with shipments expected to hit 26.7 million units this year, a staggering 11.1% year-on-year increase. This achievement cements the brand’s position as the world’s second largest TV manufacturer with a global market share of 13.4%.
618 pre-sale event in late May serves as key barometer of TV demand forecast for second half of 2023
The price of TV panels is soaring this year, Xiaomi In March, it spearheaded a move to raise retail prices for some sizes of TVs in China, while rival brands trailed closely in April. Companies are preparing for the end of May. 618 shopping festival, This is the largest e-commerce promotion event in the first half of 2023. The success of the pre-sale event will be an important metric for brands to assess their procurement plans for the second half of 2023, which will subsequently influence the price trend of TV panels.
TrendForce claims that the decision to raise prices ahead of the 618 Shopping Festival reflects the limited profit margins currently found in the TV market, especially TVs under 65 inches. Promotional prices are unlikely to surpass last year’s Double 11 shopping festival prices, calling into question the prospects for significant sales increases during the 618 event. Moreover, in June, Chinese brands will lose momentum in building up inventories, and panel makers will have to tightly manage capacity utilization to keep TV panel prices on an upward trajectory.
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